The Innovator's Dilemma Strikes Back
How AI is Opening Markets in Law and Medicine
One of my favorite business books is The Innovator's Dilemma.
At its core, the book is about what Christensen calls "disruptive innovations" and how they can transform virtually any type of market. Most of his case studies are relics of the 1990s (the disk drive industry, for instance), yet its lessons are definitely applicable today.
Ultimately, a disruptive innovation is one that makes a product or service more accessible and affordable. Non-consumers (whether due to cost, proximity, or something else) are transformed into consumers. While markets get bigger, incumbents tend to ignore (or actively avoid) these newly transformed consumers until it is too late.
The definition doesn't exactly fit. However, I would argue that LLMs have been that disruptive force in two specific verticals: law and medicine. While there is limited data on user queries, I would strongly suspect that many people have been asking ChatGPT for legal or medical advice.
It makes too much sense. Instead of scheduling a doctor's visit, dealing with medical claims or spending thousands of dollars to answer a specific legal question, you can just ask ChatGPT and get a "good enough" answer. Better yet? It can be completely free.
Yesterday, there were several reports that ChatGPT had been changed to stop giving legal and medical advice. The reality was more nuanced. An OpenAI spokesperson told Business Insider that ChatGPT cannot pretend to be your doctor, but it can still give you medical information.
It is this nuance between information and advice that is interesting to me. The reality is that users are resourceful—especially if they are looking for a mission-critical answer to a legal or medical problem that they're facing. Even assuming that an LLM can't act as your doctor or lawyer, I'd expect that "good enough" information from ChatGPT would suffice for many people.
On one hand, it's liberating. Having a knowledgeable medical or legal assistant can be a game-changer for those who aren't in the highest income brackets. On the other hand, it will be fascinating to see seemingly slow-moving, stodgy industries like medicine and law react to this new reality. Already, I'm hearing stories of patients using LLMs to self-diagnose themselves and doctors using LLMs to diagnose patients. And we don't even know how many people are using LLMs to renegotiate their rent, write contracts, and even threaten litigation against others.
As has been the theme of my recent writing, it is a brave new world, and we're all trying to figure it out. Let me know what you think!
Prompt of the Week
One of the toughest things for 30-something adults like me to do is maintain new friendships. Between work and parenting, there is precious little time to strengthen nascent friendships. There's always an excuse not to grab a coffee or a drink. I actively try to resist this, and I asked ChatGPT for some ideas. It was a useful exercise!
"Knowing what you know about me, what are some unique strategies that I can use to maintain new friendships that I've made? Account for my work schedule, parenting commitments, and the fact that I live in New York City."